If you have questions about the housing market, let’s connect.
All my best,
Myra Spano, REALTOR®
About the Author:
Myra Spano is a service and results oriented real estate agent with her client’s goals as top priority. Myra has 15+ years of experience and is recognized as a top producing agent in her office in Virginia Beach and enjoys working with both buyers and those selling their homes.
For information about purchasing a home in Coastal Virginia, visit her website. This site is focused on homes available for sale in coastal Hampton Roads, Virginia. Email, call or text to make an appointment and begin your home search.
If you are considering selling your home in Virginia Beach or one of the surrounding areas, visit the seller’s website to learn what your property is worth.
Myra Spano & Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Towne Realty is ready to provide the real estate guidance you need. Let’s make your home dreams come true!
With all the headlines and buzz in the media, some consumers believe the market is in a housing bubble. As the housing market shifts, you may be wondering what’ll happen next. It’s only natural for concerns to creep in that it could be a repeat of what took place in 2008. The good news is, there’s concrete data to show why this is nothing like the last time.
There’s a Shortage of Homes on the Market Today, Not a Surplus
The supply of inventory needed to sustain a normal real estate market is approximately six months. Anything more than that is an overabundance and will causes prices to depreciate. Anything less than that is a shortage and will lead to continued price appreciation.
For historical context, there were too many homes for sale during the housing crisis (many of which were short sales and foreclosures), and that caused prices to tumble. Today, supply is growing, but there’s still a shortage of inventory available.
The graph below uses data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) to show how this time compares to the crash. Today, unsold inventory sits at just a 3.0-months’ supply at the current sales pace.
One of the reasons inventory is still low is because of sustained underbuilding. When you couple that with ongoing buyer demand as millennials age into their peak homebuying years, it continues to put upward pressure on home prices. That limited supply compared to buyer demand is why experts forecast home prices won’t fall this time.
Mortgage Standards Were Much More Relaxed During the Crash
During the lead-up to the housing crisis, it was much easier to get a home loan than it is today. The graph below showcases data on the Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI) from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). The higher the number, the easier it is to get a mortgage.
Running up to 2006, banks were creating artificial demand by lowering lending standards and making it easy for just about anyone to qualify for a home loan or refinance their current home. Back then, lending institutions took on much greater risk in both the person and the mortgage products offered. That led to mass defaults, foreclosures, and falling prices.
Today, things are different, and purchasers face much higher standards from mortgage companies. Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, says:
“Credit standards tightened in recent months due to increasing economic uncertainty and monetary policy tightening.”
Stricter standards, like there are today, help prevent a risk of a rash of foreclosures like there was last time.
The Foreclosure Volume Is Nothing Like It Was During the Crash
The most obvious difference is the number of homeowners that were facing foreclosure after the housing bubble burst. Foreclosure activity has been on the way down since the crash because buyers today are more qualified and less likely to default on their loans. The graph below uses data from ATTOM Data Solutions to help tell the story:
In addition, homeowners today are equity rich, not tapped out. In the run-up to the housing bubble, some homeowners were using their homes as personal ATMs. Many immediately withdrew their equity once it built up. When home values began to fall, some homeowners found themselves in a negative equity situation where the amount they owed on their mortgage was greater than the value of their home. Some of those households decided to walk away from their homes, and that led to a wave of distressed property listings (foreclosures and short sales), which sold at considerable discounts that lowered the value of other homes in the area.
Today, prices have risen nicely over the last few years, and that’s given homeowners an equity boost. According to Black Knight:
“In total, mortgage holders gained $2.8 trillion in tappable equity over the past 12 months – a 34% increase that equates to more than $207,000 in equity available per borrower. . . .”
With the average home equity now standing at $207,000, homeowners are in a completely different position this time.
Bottom Line
If you’re worried we’re making the same mistakes that led to the housing crash, the graphs above should help alleviate your concerns. Concrete data and expert insights clearly show why this is nothing like the last time.
All my best,
Myra Spano, REALTOR®
About the Author:
Myra Spano is a service and results oriented real estate agent with her client’s goals as top priority. Myra has 15+ years of experience and is recognized as a top producing agent in her office in Virginia Beach and enjoys working with both buyers and those selling their homes.
For information about purchasing a home in Coastal Virginia, visit her website. This site is focused on homes available for sale in coastal Hampton Roads, Virginia. Email, call or text to make an appointment and begin your home search.
If you are considering selling your home in Virginia Beach or one of the surrounding areas, visit the seller’s website to learn what your property is worth.
Myra Spano & Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Towne Realty is ready to provide the real estate guidance you need. Let’s make your home dreams come true!
One of the biggest questions we all seem to be asking these days is: When are we going to start to see an economic recovery? As the country begins to slowly reopen, moving forward in strategic phases, business activity will help bring our nation back to life. Many economists indicate a recovery should begin to happen in the second half of this year. Here’s a look at what some of the experts have to say.
“I think there’s a good chance that there’ll be positive growth in the third quarter. And I think it’s a reasonable expectation that there’ll be growth in the second half of the year…
So, in the long run, I would say the U.S. economy will recover. We’ll get back to the place we were in February; we’ll get to an even better place than that.I’m highly confident of that. And it won’t take that long to get there.”
“The economy is expected to begin recovering during the second half of 2020 as concerns about the pandemic diminish and as state and local governments ease stay-at-home orders, bans on public gatherings, and other measures. The labor market is projected to materially improve after the third quarter; hiring will rebound and job losses will drop significantly as the degree of social distancing diminishes.”
“I think we need to prepare for a more gradual recovery while we hope for that quicker rebound.”
We’re certainly not out of the woods yet, but clearly many experts anticipate we’ll see a recovery starting this year. It may be a bumpy ride for the next few months, but most agree that a turnaround will begin sooner rather than later.
During the planned shutdown, as the economic slowdown pressed pause on the nation, many potential buyers and sellers put their real estate plans on hold. That time coincided with the traditionally busy spring real estate season. As we look ahead at this economic recovery and we begin to emerge back into our communities over the coming weeks and months, perhaps it’s time to think about putting your real estate plans back into play.
Bottom Line
The experts note a turnaround is on the horizon, starting as early as later this year. If you paused your 2020 real estate plans, let’s connect today to determine how you can re-engage in the process as the country reopens and the economy begins a much-anticipated rebound.
All my best,
Myra Spano, REALTOR®
About the Author:
Myra Spano is a service and results oriented real estate agent with her client’s goals as top priority. Myra has over 10 years of experience and is recognized as a top producing agent in her office in Virginia Beach and enjoys working with both buyers and those selling their homes.
For information about purchasing a home in Coastal Virginia, visit her website. This site is focused on homes available for sale in coastal Hampton Roads, Virginia. Email, call or text to make an appointment and begin your home search.
If you are considering selling your home in Virginia Beach or one of the surrounding areas, visit the seller’s website to learn what your property is worth.
Myra Spano & Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Towne Realty is awaiting to provide the real estate guidance you need. Contact us now to make your home dreams come true!
Myra Spano is a service and results oriented real estate agent with her client’s goals as top priority. Myra has over 10 years of experience and is recognized as a top producing agent in her office in Virginia Beach and enjoys working with both buyers and those selling their homes.
For information about purchasing a home in Coastal Virginia, visit her website. This site is focused on homes available for sale in coastal Hampton Roads, Virginia. Email, call or text to make an appointment and begin your home search.
If you are considering selling your home in Virginia Beach or one of the surrounding areas, visit the seller’s website to learn what your property is worth.
Myra Spano & Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Towne Realty is awaiting to provide the real estate guidance you need. Contact us now to make your home dreams come true!
Looking for an investment that will turn $10,000 into $80,000 in seven years? Sound too good to be true? What if I told you that you could live in it every day during that seven years? Would that sound even better?
A $300,000 home purchased today on an FHA loan would have a $10,500 down payment. If it appreciated at 2% annually, which is less than the U.S. average, the future value of the home would be $344,606 in seven years. The unpaid balance on the loan would be $256,350 based on normal amortization which would make the equity in the home $88,256.
The annual compound rate of return on the down payment would be 35%. This number sounds so large, that you might start doubting the credibility of this example.
Looking at some alternative investments, a ten-year Treasury note is currently paying 1.73%. You can earn 2.1% on a ten-year certificate of deposit. If you could handle the volatility of the stock market and pick the right stock, you might earn 7-10%.
There really is no alternative investment that can earn the return that an owner-occupied home can offer while giving you the ability to live and enjoy the home during the holding period.
Even if you could find an investment that paid a good return, when you realize the gain, you’ll be required to pay income tax, either at long-term capital gains rates or ordinary income. However, a person who has lived in a home for at least two of the last five years can exclude up to $250,000 of gain from their income if they are single and up to $500,000 of gain if the owners are married, filing jointly.
A home can certainly be a place of your own to feel safe and secure, to raise your family, share with friends and build memories. A home could be considered an emotional investment and one that pays big dividends. A home is also a financial investment not just for the reasons mentioned above but also because the equity can be accessed by doing a cash-out refinance or a home equity line of credit.
See what your investment might look like by using the Rent vs. Own and giving us a call at (757) 563-3110.
All my best,
Myra Spano, REALTOR®
About the Author:
Myra Spano is a service and results oriented real estate agent with her client’s goals as top priority. Myra has over 10 years of experience and is recognized as a top producing agent in her office in Virginia Beach and enjoys working with both buyers and those selling their homes.
For information about purchasing a home in Coastal Virginia, visit her website. This site is focused on homes available for sale in coastal Hampton Roads, Virginia. Email, call or text to make an appointment and begin your home search.
If you are considering selling your home in Virginia Beach or one of the surrounding areas, visit the seller’s website to learn what your property is worth.
Myra Spano & Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Towne Realty is awaiting to provide the real estate guidance you need. Contact us now to make your home dreams come true!
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