If you have questions about the housing market, let’s connect.
All my best,
Myra Spano, REALTOR®
About the Author:
Myra Spano is a service and results oriented real estate agent with her client’s goals as top priority. Myra has 15+ years of experience and is recognized as a top producing agent in her office in Virginia Beach and enjoys working with both buyers and those selling their homes.
For information about purchasing a home in Coastal Virginia, visit her website. This site is focused on homes available for sale in coastal Hampton Roads, Virginia. Email, call or text to make an appointment and begin your home search.
If you are considering selling your home in Virginia Beach or one of the surrounding areas, visit the seller’s website to learn what your property is worth.
Myra Spano & Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Towne Realty is ready to provide the real estate guidance you need. Let’s make your home dreams come true!
With all the headlines and buzz in the media, some consumers believe the market is in a housing bubble. As the housing market shifts, you may be wondering what’ll happen next. It’s only natural for concerns to creep in that it could be a repeat of what took place in 2008. The good news is, there’s concrete data to show why this is nothing like the last time.
There’s a Shortage of Homes on the Market Today, Not a Surplus
The supply of inventory needed to sustain a normal real estate market is approximately six months. Anything more than that is an overabundance and will causes prices to depreciate. Anything less than that is a shortage and will lead to continued price appreciation.
For historical context, there were too many homes for sale during the housing crisis (many of which were short sales and foreclosures), and that caused prices to tumble. Today, supply is growing, but there’s still a shortage of inventory available.
The graph below uses data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) to show how this time compares to the crash. Today, unsold inventory sits at just a 3.0-months’ supply at the current sales pace.
One of the reasons inventory is still low is because of sustained underbuilding. When you couple that with ongoing buyer demand as millennials age into their peak homebuying years, it continues to put upward pressure on home prices. That limited supply compared to buyer demand is why experts forecast home prices won’t fall this time.
Mortgage Standards Were Much More Relaxed During the Crash
During the lead-up to the housing crisis, it was much easier to get a home loan than it is today. The graph below showcases data on the Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI) from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). The higher the number, the easier it is to get a mortgage.
Running up to 2006, banks were creating artificial demand by lowering lending standards and making it easy for just about anyone to qualify for a home loan or refinance their current home. Back then, lending institutions took on much greater risk in both the person and the mortgage products offered. That led to mass defaults, foreclosures, and falling prices.
Today, things are different, and purchasers face much higher standards from mortgage companies. Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, says:
“Credit standards tightened in recent months due to increasing economic uncertainty and monetary policy tightening.”
Stricter standards, like there are today, help prevent a risk of a rash of foreclosures like there was last time.
The Foreclosure Volume Is Nothing Like It Was During the Crash
The most obvious difference is the number of homeowners that were facing foreclosure after the housing bubble burst. Foreclosure activity has been on the way down since the crash because buyers today are more qualified and less likely to default on their loans. The graph below uses data from ATTOM Data Solutions to help tell the story:
In addition, homeowners today are equity rich, not tapped out. In the run-up to the housing bubble, some homeowners were using their homes as personal ATMs. Many immediately withdrew their equity once it built up. When home values began to fall, some homeowners found themselves in a negative equity situation where the amount they owed on their mortgage was greater than the value of their home. Some of those households decided to walk away from their homes, and that led to a wave of distressed property listings (foreclosures and short sales), which sold at considerable discounts that lowered the value of other homes in the area.
Today, prices have risen nicely over the last few years, and that’s given homeowners an equity boost. According to Black Knight:
“In total, mortgage holders gained $2.8 trillion in tappable equity over the past 12 months – a 34% increase that equates to more than $207,000 in equity available per borrower. . . .”
With the average home equity now standing at $207,000, homeowners are in a completely different position this time.
Bottom Line
If you’re worried we’re making the same mistakes that led to the housing crash, the graphs above should help alleviate your concerns. Concrete data and expert insights clearly show why this is nothing like the last time.
All my best,
Myra Spano, REALTOR®
About the Author:
Myra Spano is a service and results oriented real estate agent with her client’s goals as top priority. Myra has 15+ years of experience and is recognized as a top producing agent in her office in Virginia Beach and enjoys working with both buyers and those selling their homes.
For information about purchasing a home in Coastal Virginia, visit her website. This site is focused on homes available for sale in coastal Hampton Roads, Virginia. Email, call or text to make an appointment and begin your home search.
If you are considering selling your home in Virginia Beach or one of the surrounding areas, visit the seller’s website to learn what your property is worth.
Myra Spano & Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Towne Realty is ready to provide the real estate guidance you need. Let’s make your home dreams come true!
In 1968, mortgage rates were 8.5%. The next year, rates went down to 7%. Homeowners could buy a 15-20% larger home for the same payments if they could find someone to assume their mortgage.
FHA and VA mortgages were very popular in certain price ranges and they allowed anyone to assume the mortgage regardless of the credit. If you could find a person to take over your note, you were free to qualify for another mortgage.
In October 1981, mortgage rates reached 18.63%. A $250,000 mortgage had a monthly principal and interest payment of $3,896.46. As astronomical as that rate sounds, people were still buying homes and were good investments.
Four years later, they were still over 12%. The monthly payment was $2,571.53. Believe it or not, people were excited to be paying only 2/3 what they had to pay a few years earlier.
Fast forward to late 1991 when the rates went below 9% and that same payment was to $2,015.16. At the turn of the 21st century, rates were 8.15% and that made the payment $1,860.62. Not much change in rates during that decade.
If we look around the housing bubble, late 2008, the rates were 6.04% and the payment was $1,505.31. By 2009, mortgage rates had fallen below 5%. The lowest mortgage rate was 3.31% on November 2012 with a payment of $1,096.27.
Rates fluctuated for the next few years until now, and most of the experts are expecting them to be above 5% by the end of 2018. Rates have increased each week for the last six weeks to 4.38% with payments of $1,240.12.
The average mortgage rate for the past 47 years is a little over 8%. The real estate and mortgage markets are cyclical. Rates have been historically low for a long period but will probably continue to rise. Most buyers don’t pay cash and mortgages enable them to purchase now. Based on history, even 8% would be an excellent rate. Until it reaches that point again, everything lower is a bargain.
All my best,
Myra Spano, REALTOR®
About the Author:
Myra Spano is a service and results oriented real estate agent with her client’s goals as top priority. Myra has over 10 years of experience and is recognized as a top producing agent in her office in Virginia Beach and enjoys working with both buyers and those selling their homes.
For information about purchasing a home in Coastal Virginia, visit her website. This site is focused on homes available for sale in Hampton Roads, Virginia. Email, call or text to make an appointment begin your home search.
If you are considering selling your home in Virginia Beach or one of the surrounding areas, visit the seller’s website to request a Free Market Analysis of your property.
Myra Spano & Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Towne Realty is awaiting to provide the real estate guidance you need. Contact us now to make your home dreams come true!
Appraisals provide an objective opinion of value, but it’s not an exact science so appraisals may differ.
For buying and selling purposes, appraisals are usually based on market value — what the property could probably be sold for. Other types of value include insurance value, replacement value, and assessed value for property tax purposes.
Appraised value is not a constant number. Changes in market conditions can dramatically alter appraised value.
Appraised value doesn’t take into account special considerations, like the need to sell rapidly.
Lenders usually use either the appraised value or the sale price, whichever is less, to determine the amount of the mortgage they will offer.
All my best,
Myra Spano, REALTOR®
About the Author:
Myra Spano is a service and results oriented real estate agent with her client’s goals as top priority. Myra is recognized as a top producing agent in her office in Virginia Beach and enjoys working with both buyers and those selling their homes.
For information about purchasing a home in Virginia Beach, visit her website. This site is focused on homes available for sale in Hampton Roads, Virginia. Email, call or text to make an appointment begin your home search.
If you are considering selling your home in Virginia Beach or one of the surrounding areas, visit the seller’s website to request a Free Market Analysis of your property.
Myra Spano & Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Towne Realty is awaiting to provide the real estate guidance you need. Contact us now to make your home dreams come true!
1. What is the assessed value of the property? Note that assessed value is generally less than market value. Ask to see a recent copy of the seller’s tax bill to help you determine this information.
2. How often are properties reassessed, and when was the last reassessment done? In general, taxes jump most significantly when a property is reassessed.
3. Will the sale of the property trigger a tax increase? The assessed value of the property may increase based on the amount you pay for the property. And in some areas, such as California, taxes may be frozen until resale.
4. Is the amount of taxes paid comparable to other properties in the area? If not, it might be possible to appeal the tax assessment and lower the rate.
5. Does the current tax bill reflect any special exemptions that I might not qualify for? For example, many tax districts offer reductions to those 65 or over.
All my best,
Myra Spano, REALTOR®
About the Author:
Myra Spano is a service and results oriented real estate agent with her client’s goals as top priority. Myra is recognized as a top producing agent in her office in Virginia Beach and enjoys working with both buyers and those selling their homes.
For information about purchasing a home in Virginia Beach, visit her website. This site is focused on homes available for sale in Hampton Roads, Virginia. Email, call or text to make an appointment begin your home search.
If you are considering selling your home in Virginia Beach or one of the surrounding areas, visit the seller’s website to request a Free Market Analysis of your property.
Myra Spano & Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Towne Realty is awaiting to provide the real estate guidance you need. Contact us now to make your home dreams come true!
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The Real Estate Savvy by Myra Spano 